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作者:电竞投注平台_电竞竞猜app更新时间:2020-10-21 15:43:51

  为应对疫情冲击,海外主要国家推出强刺激政策,6月美联储资产负债表规模达到创纪录的7.17万亿美元,短期扩张50%以上,后续料维持在7万亿美元左右随着全球经济进入逐步复苏阶段,全球制造业PMI指数由4月份的39.6%反弹至荣枯线以上,8月均值为51.8%,主要国家PMI恢复至疫情前水平bg真人投注平台_BG真人厅  中国经济复苏领先全球,财新中国PMI指数回升速度远大于2008年,连续4个月位于荣枯线以上,制造业复苏有利于拉动工业商品价格5月国内PPI低点确立,8月国内PPI同比下降2.0%,较上月降幅收窄0.4%,同时PPI环比继续上升,市场需求回暖经济环比改善带来大宗商品持续修复,Wind数据显示,4月以来,代表商品期货大类资产的南华商品指数已上涨近14%

  商品资产拥有独特的宏观属性,大宗商品价格对PPI、CPI具有直接的影响在通货膨胀上行的过程中,大宗商品指数更加受益,能够有效对冲通胀带来的风险bg真人投注平台_BG真人厅此外,大宗商品与股、债之间的相关性低,投资组合风险分散效果好,在组合中加入大宗商品,能够有效降低组合风险和波动  原油短期或维持震荡  原油作为“工业生产的血液”,是化工品定价的锚定基准,对于实体经济的变化非常敏感

3月中下旬,市场对原油供需失衡预期悲观,美国市场出现流动性危机,国际油价持续下探随着美联储一系列救市政策的推出,美股流动性危机解除bg真人投注平台_BG真人厅步入5月后,全球疫情得到一定控制,石油需求恢复供应端OPEC+深化减产,叠加美联储无限量QE提振全球风险偏好,油价反弹国内方面,在疫情有效防控之下,复工复产稳步推进,工业快于服务业复苏,能化板块稳步上涨

进入9月,油价出现一定回调,主要是由于原油基本面没有出现新的利好,叠加全球资本市场风险偏好下降,导致包括美股、原油在内的风险资产普遍承压  短期来看,原油或维持震荡bg真人投注平台_BG真人厅中长期而言,看好油价中枢抬升原油价格强支撑来自于供给端持续收缩,OPEC+整体保持了良好的减产执行率,美国原油产量长期处于下降通道,原油钻机数继续低位震荡,美国原油库存趋势性去化,供给持续收缩决定油价向下空间有限从需求端来看,经济持续回暖,全球供需平衡逐渐修复

在国内疫情有效防控之下,复苏步调领先全球,中国炼厂加工量维持在较高水平欧美地区逐步解除限制,美国炼厂开工率逐步增加,但仍处于历年均值以下,有待进一步恢复bg真人投注平台_BG真人厅全球疫情控制情况和经济恢复进程决定了油价下一步的节奏  微软联合创始人、全球医疗慈善家比尔·盖茨周日对美国应对新冠疫情的现状提出了批评,其中包括冠状病毒检测时间过长  盖茨在接受采访时表示,在疫情爆发六个多月后,美国新冠病毒快速检测能力仍不足

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