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作者:电竞投注平台_电竞竞猜app更新时间:2020-10-22 00:12:42

上市公司基本恢复正常经营,投资意愿复苏,“宽信用”政策下筹资现金流增加由于2020Q1疫情防控政策对商业活动和生产活动的限制,上市公司平均经营活动现金流净额出现大幅下降,是2018Q2以来首次转负bbin真人庄闲_bbin真人庄闲平台但随着疫情传播得到控制,Q2经营活动现金流净额负增速大幅收窄此外,在上半年经济刺激政策下,“宽货币”向“宽信用”传导,社会“去杠杆”让位于经济“逆周期”,平均筹资活动现金流净额增速结束了自2017Q1以来的持续负增长,2020年上半年前两季度持续大幅增长经济受疫情冲击而大幅衰退预期下,企业投资意愿在2020Q1受到一定抑制,但随着经济刺激政策实施,企业投资支出同比增加

具体来看,2020Q1/Q2,全A(非金融石油石化)平均经营活动现金流净额增速分别为-138.59%/-18.29%,平均筹资活动现金流净额增速分别为109.42%/353.03%,平均投资活动现金流净额增速分别为4.76%/-13.48%企业债务规模增速恢复至正常水平,企业偿债能力得到有效保证bbin真人庄闲_bbin真人庄闲平台疫情防控措施将首先影响低收入人群的收入情况并带来消费需求的削减,进而导致企业现金流入的减少但若疫情持续时间过长,随着失业潮的持续蔓延,在大量消费者无力偿还债务的同时,社会整体需求的减弱将影响企业偿债能力随着Q2企业生产经营活动恢复,应付账款与应收账款同比增速双双回落至正常水平,付息债务规模增速也显著下降,上市公司整体债务压力下降

2020Q1/H1,全A(非金融石油石化)平均应付账款增速分别为119.67%/6.78%,短期债务规模大幅下降平均应收账款增速分别为-0.64%/-3.03%bbin真人庄闲_bbin真人庄闲平台整体来看,上市企业在疫情冲击下表现出较强产业链议价能力,应付增速爆发式增长,而应收增速维持平稳此外,2020Q1/H1全A(非金融石油石化)有息债务规模增速分别为22.12%/10.02%,债务到期规模以及利息支付压力增速放缓3、经济恢复期的业绩两极分化,下游复苏尚未向上游传导

通过对全A进行风格划分,在2020年上半年疫情冲击以及经济政策刺激下,我们发现下游需求正在复苏,农林牧渔、医药等必选消费板块业绩稳定性较强二季度经济“通缩”延续,制造业复苏趋势相对缓慢,反映中游制造景气度环比持平bbin真人庄闲_bbin真人庄闲平台由于经济衰退导致的需求收缩,能源资源品虽然在二季度流动性充裕环境下价格上涨,但实体经济需求依然疲软,上游整体业绩较差3.1 下游需求复苏,中游景气度持平,上游景气度下滑需求复苏带动下游板块业绩改善,板块景气度低位修复

2020H1下游需求板块的归母净利增速与营收增速均在负值区间大幅收敛,其中,归母净利增速上升边际更加陡峭,表明疫情以及洪水等灾害因素造成上半年下游消费品供需错配,量价恢复存在不均衡现象具体来看,下游需求板块2020Q1/H1营收增速分别为-15.82%/-5.09%bbin真人庄闲_bbin真人庄闲平台归母净利增速分别为-32.19%/-8.53%ROE(TTM)分别为9.54%/9.98%,杜邦拆分来看,权益乘数与销售净利率同样存在正向拉动,资产周转率环比略有下降二季度经济“通缩”延续,中游制造业景气度环比持平

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